Would the martingal...
 
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Would the martingale system be a good strategy for draw no bet in football?  


barbrady
Posts: 1
 barbrady
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On Betfair I was thinking of backing draw no bet for the favourite at prices around 1.80, and just keep raising my stake when I lose and of course I am getting my stake refunded when the game is a draw.

Surely this is unlikely to get a long run of losses and the draw scenario is basically giving you a free shot with no loss.

So I would do something like this:

Back team A draw no bet, odds 1.80. Stake £6.40 to win £5. If win I just do same again. If it's a draw I lose nothing, and of course if other team wins I am £6.40 down, but now I do next bet to win £11.40 and so on.

I will obviously have to stop at some stage with a really bad run but my selections are usually quite good, and it's not like I am randomly selecting games.

Any thoughts about this?

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shauny007
Posts: 25
(@shauny007)
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Joined: 1 year ago

Instead of draw no bet could you get better odds by backing the team you thought would win and include the full-time correct score 1-1. Chances of a game ending 0-0 or 2-2 are slim anyway.

Regarding your strategy, you are already betting £11.40 on the 2nd bet just to get a fiver. What if you lose this, are you then betting £30 or something on your 3rd bet.

That’s the problem with the martingale the stakes grow rapidly and you could easily go on a run of losing.

If you do decide to do just set a stop limit like for example if 5 losses in a row you stop. You may find you go on a nice long run winning, but please do the stop thing as you don’t want to be betting 100’s for a fiver.

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mrb
 mrb
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@shauny007

Even though what you say is correct that if a game is a draw it's likely to be 1-1, this scenario does not help him much with the concept as he is getting back his money on all draws, 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, and is just looking to find the winner of the match. So he would be best to ignore the correct score and just stick to backing his selection with draw no bet.

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Derek
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 Derek
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Try it on paper for a month before wasting any money. If it works out go for it. The only thing which will beat you is if you go on a really horrible run which is quite likely to happen at some point.

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Jack MC
 Jack MC
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@Derek

That is the only thing which stops the martingale from being good, a losing run. The rubbish people go on about regarding needing unlimited funds is pointless as nobody would ever accept the bets anyway if unlimited (we know that). When push comes to shove, the martingale can work as long as you avoid a losing run. Many people use it each day not even thinking about it. Like say I bet £5 on Man Utd to win and they lose, I subconsciously bet £10 on Chelsea to win the next game, and usually unless your luck stinks, you can do this up to 5 times and have at least 1 winner and you are in profit. The same would apply for draw no bet so it would work most of the time.

 

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