Lay the Draw in Football Strategy?

When you lay the draw in a football game, you are basically saying that one of the two teams will win the game, resulting in a win bet for you.

So you have a multitude of scenarios that will win your bet, 1-0, 2-0, 1-0, 2-1 and so on, as long as the game is not a draw 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 etc

The good thing about laying the draw is it also gives you room to trade for win/win scenarios whilst in play.

Lay Draw Strategy

Let’s imagine you have put a lay bet on the draw for Manchester United v Liverpool. You really have a strong feeling Man Utd will score first today as Liverpool have been out of form, and Man Utd are playing at home, and are in form, but you are unsure of who will win.

The lay price for the draw on the exchange is (3.45), and you decide to lay this for £100. This means if the game is not a draw you will win £100 minus commission, and if the game is a draw you will lose £245, as that is your liability.

Now here are a few scenarios that can happen live in the game:

Scenario 1

Manchester United score an early goal. This is fantastic for your lay bet, and now the market will presume they will most likely go on to victory.

In this scenario the Back price would have risen so you can now back out your bet meaning it is win/win for you, no matter if the game is a draw, or if anyone wins.

To do this lets say the Back bet has risen to (6.20). If you backed the draw directly with another £100, your scenario would be win £275 if the game was a draw, and lose nothing if either side win (at this point you would have zero risk money, just a free chance to win £275).

But you preferably want to green-up for all 3 scenarios. So at (6.20) you could place a back bet on the draw for £55.65. This now means if Man Utd or Liverpool win you have won £44.35, and if the game does end up a draw you have won £44.38.

Throughout this trade you will have lost zero money no matter what the outcome is, sort of like a free bet.

Scenario 2

If Liverpool score first, the market will probably dictate that the most likely outcome will still be a draw. So in fact the Back price could have dropped. This is not a good scenario, however it would not have dropped significantly.

(Please note there is no set formula for this, you need to practise. All games are different, and goals are scored early on, or late on).

Now if the draw odds dropped to (2.80), and you backed with £100, you would either lose £65 if the game was a draw, or absolutely nothing if either side won.

This is where you need to use your judgment whether you want to keep your main big bet on and risk that it is not a draw, and not lose £275, or if you cut your losses now and risk losing £65 if a draw, but nothing at all if either side have victory.

Scenario 3

The game has no goals, so the back price is falling, this leads to two outcomes for you.

1) You can let the game continue, perhaps around the 60th minute mark you can trade out for a loss on all 3 outcomes, but nowhere near the amount the loss was if it ended as a draw and you did nothing, or:

2) You can let the game ride out longer, in hope of a goal, because the later the game goes on and then there is a goal, this will end up being a very profitable trade for you. One in which you can trade out if not long to go (riskier), or trade out as was shown in scenario 1.

I personally prefer to lay the draw when I think there is more chance that the favourites will score first, and they have quality strikers playing. As more times than not you can do the scenario 1 trade.

If you get enough of these correct, it is all about damage limitation when other things happen. If you can win every time the favourite take the lead, and reduce the loss on other scenarios then this can be a very good little trade for you to be doing.

Just remember every game is different. Start of with small trades, and see what is working for you. The better you get at it, and the more comfortable you feel, you can then start increasing lay odds on the draw.

You can also alter all these scenarios for example in scenario 1, you could make it so you broke even on draw, and won bigger on either side having victory. However my thinking on this is any outcome can happen, so I like to green up for around an equal profit on all possible outcomes.

Do you lay the draw in football betting? Share your comments below.


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